Republicans should be crapping themselves right now.
This Wright controversy is the number one attack they will have against Obama this cycle. Forget Rezko, forget the "experience" question, forget the Hussein-Muslim stuff (which looks especially ridiculous now that Obama's church and pastor are headline news). Those are all loser issues for the Republicans.
Wright is the real deal -- the one bit of "dirt" that right wing operatives can dig up from Obama's squeaky clean background. You can hear them salivating, writing Obama off.
John Derbyshire
This is a serious candidate for the Presidency? Toast, toast.
But if this hit job was going to destroy Obama, it would be destroying him RIGHT NOW. Obama would already be done, with the clips fresh in people's minds. Swift-boat attacks are designed for the near term, designed to provoke a knee-jerk reaction that kicks a candidate right out of contention.
But Obama isn't going anywhere.
His numbers have taken a hit, as expected, but he's only slightly behind.
Gallup:
McCain 47
Obama 43
These numbers are devastating for John McCain.
Think about this. McCain has had his nomination wrapped up for over a month, his party has consolidated behind him, the President has endorsed him, he hasn't been criticized from the right since Romney dropped out on Feb. 7th, the Democrats are too busy fighting each other, and he has received glowing coverage from his buddies in the media.
Obama, meanwhile, has been attacked from all sides. His primary opponent Hillary Clinton has claimed that McCain would be a better Commander-in-Chief, Saturday Night Live is making him out to be dumber and duller than Bush, viral spam emails are smearing him right and left, and the media has spent the past week endlessly playing incendiary comments from his former pastor.
Given these circumstances, wouldn't you expect McCain to have a 10-15 point lead on Obama right now?
Instead, McCain and Obama are still essentially tied. And this is before, mind you, Obama's great speech has seeped into the electorate. Clearly McCain is a much weaker candidate than anyone has expected, and Barack Obama is much stronger.
The general election is still seven months away. Think about that. These Rev. Wright videos are going to feel like ancient history by then. I'm sure a right wing 527 will try to air them endlessly (unless Trinity has copyright protection to prevent their use in commercials), but they won't have the impact that they are having right now. If Obama was going to be toast, he'd be burning up as we speak.
Because looking ahead, it only gets better for Obama. When he finally defeats Hillary Clinton, he will get a big bump as the victor of a mighty historical primary battle. He will receive the strong endorsements of Hillary, Al Gore, John Edwards, Bill Clinton. His party will unite behind him. We will all have his back, not just the 50% of the Democratic party who are supporting him now.
Advantage: Obama
Then comes the conventions. Obama is going to deliver a flat-out knockout speech, we can almost guarantee that. McCain's speech, if you've been paying any attention, will be a total dud.
Advantage: Obama
Then we get into September-October. I expect McCain to hold his own in the debates, but Obama will have a better sense of humor, better ideas, more charisma. McCain will have at least one "angry, confused old man" moment. And let's face it -- he will just look old and tired next to Obama.
Advantage: Obama
And Obama will have the $$$$ and the grassroots organization to match the Republican smear machine.
Advantage: Obama
So yes, if you are wondering why the Republicans in the media are starting to lose their lunch over Sen. Obama, realize that it boils down to fear. They've realized that little Obambi is not the sheep they thought he was. There is a wolf beneath that fuzzy exterior. And they are also realizing that Obama is the greatest threat to their right wing policies and positions in a generation.
They've landed their best punch, and Obama is still standing. Just wait until he punches back.