Full disclosure -- so far, this is just a theory. So please have your tinfoil hat in place and secure.
But I have the strong suspicion that Barack Obama was originally slated to visit Iraq first, followed by Afghanistan. The plans were changed when John McCain foolishly disclosed Obama's itinerary on Friday.
Here is the circumstantial evidence.
First, from Marc Ambinder, we learn that the press was told that Obama would be traveling to Iraq first:
So reporters were to led to think that Obama would first travel to Iraq and then to Afghanistan.... not the other way 'round.
Second, doesn't it seem strange that Obama would fly to Kuwait, which is right next door to Iraq, only to skip Iraq and fly straight to Afghanistan?
Mr. Obama touched down in Kabul just before noon on Saturday, his aides said, after stopping to visit — and play basketball with — American troops in Kuwait on his trip from Washington.
And just today, we learn that Obama has flown back to Kuwait in preparation for his trip to Iraq.
The timing and the itinerary seem quite suspicious. Perhaps this was all just a big head fake that went according to plan. But then again -- maybe they decided to first visit Afghanistan only after McCain leaked Obama's schedule to the world.
Here is the approximate timeline, from the sources I can gather (all times Eastern):
July 17th, 3:17 PM: Obama departs from Andrews Air Force Base to Kuwait.
July 18th - 4:00 AM: Flight arrives in Kuwait after 13 hour flight.
July 18th - 1:15 PM: Reuters files article about McCain's comments.
July 18th - 7:00 PM: Obama departs Kuwait for Afghanistan (8 hour flight approx).
July 19th - 3:15 AM: Barack Obama arrives in Kabul, Afghanistan.
I cannot confirm exactly when Obama landed in Kuwait or left for Kabul, but instead approximated those times based on how long it takes a commercial flight to travel those distances. But where I have Obama in Kuwait for 15 hours, the press has reported that his visit with the troops was only two hours. Any help in solving this discrepancy would be helpful. Perhaps they stopped in Germany en route to Kuwait, adding a few hours to the flight time, or maybe they were in Kuwait for longer than the two hours during which they visited the troops.
Clearly, it makes sense that they shifted plans after the big blunder by McCain, and that such a shift would take a few hours. After all, you have to reschedule visits with foreign leaders and military personnel, not to mention flight logistics. But I'm sure the Secret Service planned for such a contingency, and had Afghanistan as a "plan B" in case someone spilled the beans. I'm also sure nobody thought it would be John McCain himself who would do this.
It is also very interesting -- and damning -- that John McCain leaked the schedule that the press believed was fact. In other words, the Obama folks told everyone that they'd be going to Iraq first, somebody told that to McCain, and McCain told it to the world. Even if this was a clever head fake by the Obama folks, that was still an unbelievable act of indiscretion by John McCain.
Clearly, this deserves some more investigation. I'm sure the Obama folks know the full story, but may not want to leak the damaging details until after they return home.
OK, you can remove the tinfoil hat now!